Climate Change Risk Assessment

The ROPME Sea Area (RSA) is characterized by extreme environmental conditions. Changes in temperature, salinity, oxygen, pH, sea level and cyclone activity threaten marine and coastal ecosystems across the RSA and put coastal communities and industry at risk. This is the first marine and coastal climate change risk assessment for the ROPME Sea Area (RSA). It highlights where adaptation action is needed most. A total of 45 key risks are identified, 13 of which are considered severe and are already affecting biodiversity, people and industry. Many risks are transboundary, highlighting the potential benefits from coordinated regional action in addition to national responses national responses.

The ROPME Sea Area (RSA) covers the territorial waters of the eight ROPME Member States: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The RSA is divided into three distinct Sub-Regions: The shallow, semi-enclosed Inner RSA, the transitional waters of the Middle RSA and the oceanic Outer RSA.

(Extracted from the report ROPME (2021) Policy Brief: Climate Change Risk Assessment for the ROPME Sea Area (Buckley, P.J., Pinnegar, J.K., Howes, E.L., Maltby, K. and Le Quesne, W)

Severe Climate Change – Risks to Biodiversity

  • Declining Coral Cover, Distribution and Health – Widespread decline and loss of corals due to temperature increases, and increased storminess, turbidity and declining pH.
  • Increasing Harmful Algal Blooms (HABS) – Warmer temperatures and changing circulation patterns may lead to more frequent, extensive and persistent mass algal blooms. These blooms can lead to fish kills and coral bleaching events, and present risks to human health.
  • Decline in Phytoplankton Primary Production – Changes in temperature, salinity, ocean currents and monsoon timing may lead to reduced productivity, with wider impacts on the health of marine ecosystems, including commercial fish stocks.
  • Loss of Biodiversity in Coral Associated Communities – Negative climate change impacts on coral reefs are reducing the available habitat for species that depend on them for food, shelter and reproduction.
  • Increasing Jellyfish Outbreaks – Changes in oxygen levels, and increased salinity and temperatures may be contributing to more jellyfish outbreaks, with negative impacts on other marine species and an increased risk of blocking industrial intakes.
  • Changes in Benthic (Seabed) Invertebrates – Temperature change, oxygen depletion and ocean acidification are having negative impacts on some benthic invertebrates and are leading to an increase in some biofouling organisms.
  • Changes in Pelagic (Oceanic) Fish – Changes in temperature, oxygen levels, salinity and changing currents are affecting abundance and distribution of pelagic fish species, with knock-on effects for their predators.

Severe Climate Change – Risks to Society

  • Threats to Coastal Communities (People, Homes and Local Amenities) – Extreme events present a risk to life and an increase in long-term flood risk could impact coastal cities and communities.
  • Changing Marine Fisheries Resources – Marine fisheries will be negatively affected by changing habitat suitability, shifts in species distribution, effects on prey, and increases of harmful algal blooms.
  • Increased Flood Risk to Coastal Industry – An increase in flood risk associated with severe storm events and long-term sea level rise, will lead to damage to, or loss of, facilities and reduced efficiency of operations.
  • Non-Flooding Impacts on Coastal Industries – More severe storms will increase physical damage, disrupt operations and increase pollution risk. Marine intakes may be affected by increasing water temperatures, HABs and jellyfish blooms.
  • Impacts on Desalination Plants – Cyclones, storms and flooding may cause physical damage to desalination plants. Increasing water temperature, turbidity, HABs and jellyfish blooms may disrupt operations.